Ngân hàng nới room tín dụng, thị trường bất động sản sẽ hưởng lợi?

Thông tin về việc nới room tín dụng được các nhà đầu tư và doanh nghiệp mong đợi, việc này có thể sẽ mang lại thuận lợi cho thị trường bất động sản.

Chờ đợi nới room tín dụng

Cuối tháng 8, Thống đốc Ngân hàng Nhà nước Nguyễn Thị Hồng đã có những chia sẻ thông tin mới nhất về lộ trình bổ sung hạn mức tăng trưởng tín dụng cho các ngân hàng tại Hội nghị trực tuyến toàn quốc phổ biến, giải đáp, tháo gỡ khó khăn, vướng mắc trong quá trình triển khai chương trình hỗ trợ lãi suất 2%/năm.

“Chậm nhất là đầu tuần sau sẽ thông báo về điều chỉnh phần còn lại của room tín dụng trong con số 14% mà Ngân hàng Nhà nước đã định hướng từ đầu năm để thuận tiện cho việc triển khai thực hiện gói hỗ trợ lãi suất 2%”, bà Nguyễn Thị Hồng cho hay.

Mặc dù vậy, đến nay, Ngân hàng Nhà nước vẫn chưa có thông tin chính thức về việc nới hạn mức tín dụng cho các ngân hàng.

Trước đó, số liệu từ Ngân hàng Nhà nước cho thấy, dư nợ tín dụng tính đến hết tháng 7 tăng 9,42% so với đầu năm; tương đương mức tăng 16,3% so với cùng kỳ. Như vậy, tăng trưởng tín dụng đang có xu hướng hạ nhiệt sau khi đạt đỉnh vào cuối tháng 5; tăng gần 17% so với cùng kỳ; do việc giải ngân chậm lại khi nhiều ngân hàng đã chạm trần tăng trưởng tín dụng hàng năm.

Bất động sản vẫn nhận được nhiều vốn thông qua trái phiếu 

Tại diễn đàn tổ chức mới đây, TS. Đinh Thế Hiển, chuyên gia kinh tế đánh giá, mặc dù NHNN đang hạn chế tín dụng vào ngành bất động sản; nhưng ngành này vẫn nhận được nhiều vốn thông qua trái phiếu doanh nghiệp. Số liệu thống kê cho thấy, trái phiếu doanh nghiệp phát hành riêng lẻ trong 7 tháng năm 2022 đạt 280.641 tỷ đồng.

Theo ông Hiển, các kết quả khảo sát cho thấy, vốn ngân hàng đang chiếm đến 70% giá trị vốn bất động sản. Với mô hình kinh doanh hiện nay, ngân hàng càng tăng tín dụng, doanh nghiệp địa ốc sẽ càng tăng thâm dụng vốn.

Trong khi đó, hơn 70% nhà đầu tư là lướt sóng, trong khi bất động sản khai thác chiếm tỷ lệ nhỏ. Do vậy khi giá chững lại thì thanh khoản giảm mạnh, ảnh hưởng tức thời tới dòng tiền thu hồi của ngân hàng.

“Chưa kể, thời hạn quay vòng vốn trong lĩnh vực bất động sản rất dài, bình quân 10 năm, cao gấp 4 lần các ngành sản xuất kinh doanh khác. Nên thực chất nó có tác động gấp 3 – 4 lần so với các ngành khác cùng khoản vay”, ông Hiển phân tích.

Từ thực tế nêu trên, TS. Đinh Thế Hiển cho rằng, cần có giải pháp huy động vốn bền vững thay vì chỉ phụ thuộc vào dòng vốn tín dụng của ngân hàng.

Thực tế, từ tháng 4 – 7/2022, tức sau 3 tháng sau khi một số ngân hàng có động thái siết vốn với bất động sản, nhiều doanh nghiệp bước vào giai đoạn khát vốn, khó bán hàng. Thanh khoản nhà đất trên thị trường thứ cấp cũng trầm lắng, dòng tiền trên thị trường địa ốc yếu dần và các dòng vốn đầu tư tài sản cũng có dấu hiệu co cụm, phòng thủ.

room-tin-dung

Thị trường bất động sản chờ hưởng lợi

SSI Research nhận định, hạn mức tăng trưởng tín dụng điều chỉnh trong khoảng còn lại của mục tiêu 14% để thuận tiện cho việc triển khai thực hiện gói hỗ trợ lãi suất 2%, cũng như đáp ứng nhu cầu vốn để thực hiện kế hoạch phát triển kinh tế – xã hội và phục hồi sản xuất, kinh doanh.

Như vậy, điều này tương đương với việc sẽ có khoảng 457.000 tỷ đồng sẽ được phân bổ về cho các ngân hàng, với mức dự báo hạn mức bổ sung sẽ vào khoảng 3 – 5%, tùy vào tình hình sức khỏe của từng ngân hàng.

Room tín dụng sẽ ảnh hưởng đến bất động sản như thế nào?

Còn theo đánh giá của KBSV, việc nới room tín dụng phần nào sẽ có tác động tích cực đến dòng tiền của các doanh nghiệp bất động sản theo hai hướng:

Thứ nhất, các doanh nghiệp có nguồn tiền mới để vay đảo phần nợ trái phiếu đến hạn. Thống kê cho thấy, năm 2023 và năm 2024, tổng giá trị đáo hạn trái phiếu lần lượt đạt 374.300 tỷ đồng và 381.200 tỷ đồng. Trong đó, nhóm bất động sản chiếm tỷ trọng lớn thứ hai, lần lượt đạt 120.400 tỷ đồng (chiếm 32,1%) và 121.100 tỷ đồng (chiếm 32%).

Tuy nhiên, các chuyên gia cho rằng phương án này chỉ áp dụng được đối với các doanh nghiệp có dự án mới và còn tài sản đảm bảo chất lượng tốt.

Thứ hai, thị trường bất động sản được kỳ vọng sẽ ấm trở lại vào các tháng cuối năm khi dòng tín dụng được khai thông, doanh nghiệp giải phóng được lượng hàng tồn kho và có thêm nguồn tiền để trả nợ.

Nhóm phân tích KBSV cũng dự báo, cuối năm 2022 và năm 2023 cùng năm 2024 sẽ là giai đoạn khó khăn về dòng tiền đối với các doanh nghiệp bất động sản có trái phiếu đáo hạn. Đặc biệt đối với các doanh nghiệp quy mô vừa và nhỏ, chất lượng tài sản không cao sẽ gặp nhiều khó khăn trong việc tìm kiếm nguồn vốn để xoay vòng.

Trong khi đó, với nhóm doanh nghiệp bất động sản lớn phần nào ít áp lực hơn nhờ quỹ đất lớn, còn tài sản đảm bảo để vay ngân hàng cùng với đó là họ đủ điều kiện để phát hành trái phiếu mới cũng như có khả năng vay trái phiếu quốc tế.

Tuy nhiên, các doanh nghiệp này vẫn phải liên tục tích lũy và triển khai dự án mới bất chấp các giai đoạn thị trường tăng trưởng nhanh và ở mức định giá cao để có khả năng huy động thêm nguồn vay nợ nhằm bổ sung dòng tiền nhằm thanh toán các nghĩa vụ đến hạn. Điều này cũng sẽ gây mất cân đối dòng tiền và làm giảm hiệu quả hoạt động trong những năm tới.

Lo ngại lạm phát?

Theo TS. Cấn Văn Lực, Thành viên Hội đồng Tư vấn Chính sách Tài chính – Tài chính Tiền tệ Quốc gia, Ngân hàng Nhà nước cần linh hoạt về hạn mức tăng trưởng tín dụng, không nên chờ đến quý IV khi tăng trưởng tín dụng và lạm phát “êm” rồi mới nới room tín dụng vì như vậy quá trễ so với nhu cầu phục hồi của nền kinh tế và doanh nghiệp.

Ông Cấn Văn Lực cho rằng, việc Ngân hàng Nhà nước còn băn khoăn chuyện chưa nới room tăng trưởng tín dụng do hai nguyên nhân; đó là lo ngại lạm phát và thanh khoản hệ thống ngân hàng.

Tuy nhiên, trong bối cảnh lạm phát chủ yếu do chi phí đẩy; nếu có thể kiểm soát giá xăng dầu và giá thịt lợn thì có thể tự tin kiểm soát được lạm phát dưới 4%.

“Không nên quá lo ngại về lạm phát mà bóp nghẹt thị trường. Khi cả thế giới đang đối mặt với lạm phát thì chúng ta đã kiểm soát được, đó là một cơ hội rất tốt”, TS. Cấn Văn Lực nhận định.

Giải quyết câu chuyện vốn cho thị trường bất động sản, TS. Đinh Thế Hiển đưa ra ba phương án:

Thứ nhất, nguồn vốn cho đối tượng mua nhà ở trung bình trở xuống phải tốt hơn nhà ở cao cấp. Với sản phẩm cao cấp có giá trị vài chục tỷ đồng, tỷ lệ cho vay chỉ nên ở mức 50%, thậm chí 40%, những người mua sản phẩm trung bình nên cho vay tỷ lệ 60 – 80%.

 

Thứ hai, công ty bất động sản phải là công ty đầu tư, không phải là công ty môi giới và cần có vốn mạnh. Từ năm 2012 khi thị trường bất động sản gặp khó khăn đã cho thấy điều này.

 

Thứ ba, lành mạnh thị trường thông qua quỹ tín thác, định chế tài chính đủ năng lực. Việt Nam hiện có bán nhà ở hình thành trong tương lai, là hình thức góp vốn của công ty bất động sản với người có nhu cầu. Nhưng nhà đầu tư cá nhân khó phân biệt về hợp đồng góp vốn hay mua nhà. Quỹ tín thác, định chế tài chính sẽ đánh giá dự án, ký hợp đồng với chủ đầu tư, nhà đầu tư cá nhân mua chứng chỉ quỹ, vẫn là hình thức cũ nhưng người cầm trịch là định chế tài chính.

 

310 thoughts on “Ngân hàng nới room tín dụng, thị trường bất động sản sẽ hưởng lợi?”

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  2. TimothyCam says:

    Алкогольная зависимость — серьёзная проблема, требующая незамедлительного лечения. Вывод из запоя — первый обязательный этап лечения алкоголизма, без которого невозможно дальнейшее лечение. Наша наркологическая клиника в Москве оказывает срочное лечение запоя на дому и в стационаре. Лечение начинается с очищения организма — инфузионной терапии, которую проводит опытный врач-нарколог. Эффективное лечение зависимости невозможно без анонимности, поэтому мы гарантируем полную конфиденциальность и соблюдение юридических прав пациентов. Лечение должно быть комплексным: детоксикация, терапия, кодирование, реабилитация. Наши специалисты используют современные методики выведения из запоя , применяя эффективные , которые быстро восстанавливают организм после интоксикации алкоголя . Лечение подбирается индивидуально, с учётом стажа, возраста, симптомов абстиненции, общего состояния и уровня токсического отравления. Диагностика состояния — обязательная часть первого приёма врача.
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  3. MarvinWek says:

    Важное преимущество услуги — анонимность. Информация о пациента, обращении, адрес, диагноз, лечение, консультация, стоимость, препараты и другие данные не передаются третьим лицам. Нажимая кнопку «отправить заявку», вы соглашаетесь с пользовательским соглашением, политикой обработки персональных данных и политикой конфиденциальности сайта.
    Исследовать вопрос подробнее – нарколог на дом цена в казани

  4. Williamgam says:

    Вывод из запоя на дому удобен, когда пациенту тяжело посещать клинику, когда близкого человека нельзя оставить одного или когда необходимо быстро получить помощь без поездки в больницы. Нарколог приезжает на место, проводит обследование, фиксирует жалобы, проверяет давление, пульс, насыщение кислородом, оценивает риски и затем назначает лечение запоя.
    Изучить вопрос глубже – наркологический вывод из запоя в сочи

  5. JamesAdvit says:

    Наш центр оказывает помощь при запое на дому, амбулаторно и в стационаре. Врач нарколог приезжает по адресу, проводит осмотр, оценивает физическое и психическое состояние пациента, подбирает препараты, ставит капельницу, дает рекомендации после процедуры и помогает выбрать дальнейшее лечение алкоголизма.
    Подробнее можно узнать тут – срочный вывод из запоя

  6. RobertPooca says:

    Врач контролирует состояние пациента на протяжении всей процедуры — от первого введения препаратов до стабилизации самочувствия. Обычно уже через час после постановки капельницы уходит тошнота, нормализуется сон, снижается тревожность и тяга к спиртному. По завершении инфузионной терапии нарколог оставляет необходимые медикаменты на несколько дней, дает чёткие инструкции по их приёму и рекомендует дальнейшие шаги: амбулаторное наблюдение, кодирование или реабилитацию. После вывода из запоя обязательно даются рекомендации по продолжению лечения алкоголизма, включая кодирование и реабилитацию. Во многих случаях — да: в частной клинике платная помощь включает выездную стабилизацию, чтобы анонимно и быстро провести необходимые процедуры на месте.
    Исследовать вопрос подробнее – нарколог на дом московской области

  7. RichardTut says:

    Запой опасен не только похмелья и слабостью. При запойным употреблении нарушается сон, повышается тревожность, страдает печень, сердце, сосудистая система, желудка и поджелудочной железы. Потеря контроля, очередной прием спиртного и сильная тягу к алкоголю могут приводить к белой горячки, психоза, судороги, инфаркт или инсульта.
    Исследовать вопрос подробнее – наркология вывод из запоя в казани

  8. GeorgeVal says:

    звоните круглосуточно по телефону горячей линии клиники: наши специалисты готовы оказать необходимую помощь в решении проблемы алкогольной зависимости.
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  9. RonaldSof says:

    Вызов нарколога на дом актуален в ситуации, когда пациент не может самостоятельно прийти на прием в клинике, агрессивно реагирует на уговоры, находится в тяжелой похмельной интоксикации или боится постановки на учет. Врач помогает на месте: проводит первичная диагностика, осмотр, назначает медикаментозные процедуры, дает рекомендации по дальнейшему лечению и объясняет родственникам, как действовать после приезда бригады.
    Получить дополнительную информацию – вызвать нарколога на дом казань

  10. Andrewsoile says:

    Медицинский вывод из запоя направлен на снятие интоксикации, нормализацию сна, восстановление водно-солевого баланса, снижение тревоги, поддержку сердца, печени, нервной системы, мозга и внутренних органов. Нарколог оценивает состояние больного, уточняет длительность запоя, количество алкоголя, наличие хронических заболеваний, прием таблеток, прошлое лечение алкоголизма, возможные противопоказания и признаки алкогольного абстинентного синдрома. После обследования подбирается индивидуальная терапия: инфузионная капельница, очищающая детоксикация, гепатопротекторы, кардиопротекторы, витамины, успокоительные средства, медикаменты для стабилизации показателей и рекомендации по дальнейшему наблюдению.
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  11. RaymondFueri says:

    Вывод из запоя в Сочи требуется, когда человек не может самостоятельно прекратить употребление алкоголя, испытывает похмелья, признаки ломки, тревогу, бессонницу, рвоту, сильную слабость или резкое ухудшение самочувствие. Даже если запой длится несколько дней, риск осложнений остается высокий: страдают системы организма, печень, сердце, сосуды, нервная система, психика и общее состояние здоровья.
    Подробнее – вывод из запоя дешево в сочи

  12. RichardGlums says:

    Вывод из запоя на дому в Казани удобен, когда близкий человек не готов ехать в клинику, плохо переносит дорогу или находится в состоянии сильной слабости. Врач приезжает на дому, сохраняет анонимность, спокойно объясняет процесс и начинает лечение только после осмотра и согласия пациента. Вызов врача на дому особенно важен, если муж, отец, брат, мама или другой близкий уже не может перестать пить и нуждается в срочной помощи.
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